Forest Whitaker

Nominated for: His turn as the brutal dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland.

Previous nominations: First nomination.

Other notable previous work: The title characters in Clint Eastwood’s Bird and in Jim Jarmusch’s Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samurai. Also, a supporting role in Battlefield Earth, which is notable for it’s badness.

I’m not sure this is Whitaker’s best performance. But it is among the best in what has been an impressive career. As a matter of fact, I’m a little surprised he hasn’t been nominated before.

Peter O’Toole

Nominated for: His role as an aging actor who falls in love with a women 50 years younger than him in Venus.

Previous nominations: Okay, take a deep breath: Lawrence of Arabia, Becket, The Lion in Winter, Goodbye, Mr. Chips, The Ruling Class , The Stunt Man, My Favorite Year . All for best actor in a leading role.

Other notable previous work: What, that wasn’t enough? That’s seven movies dude! OK, he was also in What’s New, Pussycat.

Has any other actor deserved an Oscar so much and for so long? Alas, this probably won’t be O’Toole’s year either, and considering his age that Oscar will probably never go his away. He does get to be the biggest Oscar loser ever, with eight nominations, which is actually much more impressive then actually getting the Oscar.

Will Smith

Nominated for: Playing a man struggling to be a good father and to get the job he deserves in The Pursuit of Happyness.

Previous nominations: One, for his turn as Muhammad Ali in the Michael Mann film Ali.

Other notable previous work: Bad Boys, Men in Black, Bad Boys II, Men in Black II and Hitch.

Unless something unexpected happens, Will Smith will eventually win an Oscar. It won’t be this year, but he will. Not only is he the biggest movie star around these days, he has already shown that he can act and that he has the inclination to choose some good roles in between the massive blockbusters.

Leonardo DiCaprio

Nominated for: Playing a cop that has to infiltrate the Boston underworld in The Departed. However the (older) Academy members got confused and ended up voting for his performance in Blood Diamond instead. I expect the mistake to be corrected by the time the ceremony starts.

Previous nominations: For his supporting work in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape and for his lead role in The Aviator.

Other notable previous work: Was king of the world in Titanic, Romeo in Romeo + Juliet and a con man in Catch Me If You Can .

I still can’t wrap my head around this one. DiCaprio for Blood Diamond? Why? The Departed is a much better movie than Blood Diamond and his performance in the former is also much better than his performance in the latter. It makes no sense.

Well, whatever. Leonardo is another one who will eventually get his Oscar, unless he becomes a Peter O’Toole always the bridesmaid kind of phenomenon. It just won’t be this year.

Ryan Gosling

Nominated for: Playing a drug addicted teacher in Half Nelson.

Previous nominations: First timer.

Other notable previous work: You are obviously not a teen girl, otherwise you would know he was in The Notebook.

Are you tired of me saying “this guy will eventually win an Oscar”? Well, what can I do, this category is filled with youngish stars paying their Oscar dues. Peter O’Toole is likely to be the only one of the five never to win an Oscar.

Who will win: If Whitaker doesn’t take it I will be shocked. O’Toole has an outside chance of getting enough sympathy votes to pull it off.

Who I wish would win: It’s hard to argue against Whitaker this year, especially because the rest of the field is relatively weak.